⅔think in odds.
THE DAILY PROBABILITY PUZZLEOctober 1, 2026 · ET
No. 008Bayesian reasoningMedium6 min

One green ball changes the odds

A bag contains 10 balls. Its number of green balls K is chosen uniformly from 0 through 10; the rest are red. You draw a ball uniformly, see green, and set it aside.

What is the probability the next ball is green?

Today’s puzzle